Three starting issues

1. Define your target (B): Know where you want to go in life
2. Define your starting point (A): Know Where an Who you are in life
3. Define your Route: Know How you want to go from A to B

In terms of risk management there are two main targets:

Main Risk Management Targets

1. Long term Target
   Reach your final target (Novvaya Zemlya)
2. Short term Target
   Avoid short time risks, tackle problems along the way (avoid ice floes)

So, what kind of approach is right for reaching your goal?

• If you concentrate too much in life on your ‘final goal’ or you want to achieve your goals too fast or too direct, you’ll certainly hit a short term problem, like an ice floe, and end up crashed as a hero or a martyr.
• If you concentrate too much on the short term problems in your life, you’ll loose sight on your final goal and certainly fail to reach Novaya Zemlya.

He answered friendly:
My ship’s on course……
But the port moves !

Sometimes, when you are totally focused on achieving your predefined goals, when you’re right on schedule and your project looks perfect…… You can be sure your project will fail. Why? Because while working on your project the environment changes, so you need somebody in your project that constantly checks the defined project targets against the changing environment.

So always, while working keep your head up!

Success could perhaps be defined as achieving the Result you want by using your core Qualities at the right Time given the right Circumstances (place,people,weather, atmosphere).

In formula: R = Q x T x C

Another way of looking at success has been defined by Hevizi:

In the new world of tough competition for positions, careers and recognition it is important to remind ourselves that it takes 3 to be successful and compete.

We can look at this as the following formula:

Success explained
A more sophisticated, humorous yet interesting approach of success has been defined by Alain de Botton in the next TED video. Alain examines our ideas of success and failure:
Is what you define as success really your personal defined success or perhaps the unconscious copied succes definition of somebody else?

He points out that believing in winners and loosers is a narrow and wrong way of defining the world. On top of this, he gives randomness a place in the definition of success and stresses that there can be no success without loss….

Wrapped up, success could be defined as being satisfied and happy with your choices, actions, gains and losses…..

So never give up, discover the secrets of success and enjoy it!

Youtube Success Links:
Quest for success
Success by Deepak Chopra

Although this wisdom could apply in certain circumstances, generally it’s not true.

When your caravan is snaking, it’s best to follow the next DSA advice:
Don’t brake harshly or you could loose control completely. Don’t accelerate either, for the same reasons. Just simply ease off the accelerator until the unit is brought back under control.

Sometimes in relationships, with heart/mind problems or in crisis situations this is the best advice as well. Don’t drop down or let go all things around you and don’t try to force your way out. Simply let go the accelerator and wait for things to stabilize until you’ll get grip on the situation again.

In general, to prevent snaking life situations as much as possible, surround yourself with stabilizers, e.g. ‘good advice friends’. Good friends keep each other on the road.

Links:
- Caravan Rules of thumb
- Caravan Formules

Too bad, nothing is less is true! Decisions are strongly influenced by the way we present our proposals.

Influenced Decisions
In a splendid TED Video Presentation called ‘Are we in control of our own decisions‘ (half an our fun and learning!) , Dan Ariely, an Israeli professor of behavioral economics and head of the eRationality research group at the MIT Media Lab, shows the astonishing effect of how decisions can be fundamentally changed by adding dummies in proposals:

First experiment
Ariely tested the next ad on the website of the Economist.com on a group of 100 MIT students:

As expected, most students wanted the combo deal (84%). Students can read, so nobody wanted the middle option.

But now, if you have an option nobody wants, you can take it off. Right? So Ariely tested another version of this ad on another group of students, eliminating the middle option. This is what happened:

Now the most popular option (84%) suddenly became the least popular (32%). And the least popular (16%) became the most popular (68%) option.

What happened was that the ‘useless’ option in the middle, was useless in the sense that nobody wanted it. But it wasn’t useless in the sense that it helped people figure out what they wanted. In fact, relative to the option in the middle, which was get only the print for $125, the print and web for $125 looked like a fantastic deal. And as a consequence, people chose it.

The general idea here is that we actually don’t know our preferences that well. And because we don’t know our preferences that well we’re susceptible to all of these influences from the external forces.

Second experiment
People believe that when they see somebody, they immediately know whether they like that person or not. Ariely decided to put this statement to the test.

He showed his students a picture of Tom and a picture of Jerry (real people in practice). Then he asked “Who do you want to date? Tom or Jerry?” But for half the people he added a slightly less attractive (photoshopped) version of Jerry. For the other half of the students he added a slightly less attractive (ugly) version of Tom.

Now the question was, will ugly Jerry and ugly Tom help their respective, more attractive brothers?

The answer was absolutely YES. When ugly Jerry was around, Jerry was popular. When ugly Tom was around, Tom was popular.

Conclusions: The Dummy Effect
What can we conclude from these two experiments?

• When you let people chose between two options, their decision might be positively influenced by adding a third ‘slightly less attractive version’ (the dummy) of the option you value as most favorable. So decisions are susceptible to options manipulation.

• Be aware of the Dummy-Effect when someone adds a dummy option in a choice you’ll have to make. If your decision without the dummy is not the same as with the dummy option, try to investigate why. Don’t take a decision until you’ve found out why.
• Both decisions, with or without dummies, are ‘rational’.
  Therefore your ‘rational decision’ depends more than you’re inclined you think on the character, the completeness and the description of the options. Your personal preference becomes more or less irrelevant if the options are incomplete. So think twice about possible ‘missing options’ before you take a final decision.

From now on…
Now that you’ve become aware of this dummy-effect, life will never be the same again. You’ve become conscious of the way the options in a proposal can influence a decision. This gives you the opportunity to take more enriched decisions. It also places you in a more responsible position when you develop proposals for others. Straight proposals will be ‘cleaner’ than before (‘undummied’) and also include an explanation about the way a proposal is structured and presented.

Links
- Book Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
- MIT Center for future banking

]]> http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/06/20/influenced-decisions/feed/ 0 philos http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/04/25/job-application-interview/ http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/04/25/job-application-interview/#comments Sat, 25 Apr 2009 21:49:00 +0000 philos http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/04/25/job-application-interview Continue reading →]]> Do you recognize the flabbergasted feeling that occurs when, after a ‘splendid’ job interview, you come home with a positive feeling and the day after you are rejected?

Although you thought you performed well in the interview, somewhere, somehow, you missed the boat.

What went wrong?

Well, apart from the general pitfalls in a job interview and the trivial explanations of a rejection, most probably things went wrong due to lack of proper communication.

Probably, when you’re having an interview, you’ll take notes.
Because you’re focused on getting the job, you’re inclined to (only) write down the positive aspects of the job and the conversation.

This will definitely give you a biased view on the outcome of the interview. You simply miss or underestimate the minor or negative remarks in the interview.

How to solve this?

This is what you can do to get a more realistic idea about the outcome of the interview.

• Listen
  First of all, make sure you listen well.

• Take Notes
  Be careful not just to write down your personally important or spectacular issues (e.g salary, benefits, car, etc), but especially note (and write down!) small remarks, advices or ‘used adjectives’ of the interviewer.
• Split in Negatives and Positives
  Split your note paper in left and right, and put the positive issues (the Positives) on one side and the negative issues (the Negatives) on the other side.
• Manage the Negatives
  Make sure to write down every single negative issue or negative adjective, no matter how small. Don’t ignore these Negatives. By questioning, make sure you understand them right and manage them one by one. If you’re not able to get those negatives from the table or to put them in quarantine, they might kill you in the end without you realizing it. So:
  Manage the Negatives instead of counting the Positives

• Feedback
  At the end of the conversation ask for feedback and check by asking the interviewer to summarize your Positives and Negatives. If any Negatives are left, handle them with care right there.
• Don’t fake
  Don’t try to reason away negatives that are clear facts. If that would imply a rejection, be happy, because you are not qualified for this job and therefor wouldn’t be happy in this job as well.

Evaluating an interview is not simply balancing Positives with Negatives. Even a single Negative can screw it up.

P/N-Method
Anyway, this Positives/Negatives Method is not only applicable in case of a job interview, but can be used in every “beauty parade”, contract negotiation or proposal you try to defend.

Next time, with a positive attitude, keep your ‘sixth sense’ on the potential Negatives and manage them!
]]> http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/04/25/job-application-interview/feed/ 0 philos http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/04/16/time-perspective/ http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/04/16/time-perspective/#comments Thu, 16 Apr 2009 21:15:00 +0000 philos http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/04/16/time-perspective Continue reading →]]> According to Philip Zimbardo, we all develop a specific attitude towards time (Time perspective).

Past, present or future orientated?
In The Time paradox Zimbardo explains that people turn out to be primarily past, present or future orientated. Each perspective has a detailed possible orientation (focus):

It’s clear that our now-actions strongly depend on our perception of the present and the future. This perception has has been influenced by how we perceived the past. Therefore, our future actions will be influenced by how we perceive the present – as it appears to us right now – as well.

Form this we may conclude that our future happiness is strongly defined by how (positive) we experience the ‘now’.

Experiencing the ‘now’ as a positive and constructive phase in your life, even in times of adversities, demands a conscious mind and a healthy style of thinking.

Healthy thinkstyle perspective
Based on research and his own definition of a ‘healthy thinkstyle’ in life , Zimbardo developed an ideal time perspective score (red dots):

Take the test
If you wonder what your Time perspective score is, take the test:

Take the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory

Changing Time Perspective
As you grow up, your Time-perspective changes.
When you’re young, you’re almost not influenced by your past and you don’t worry about your future, you just live in the present and simply take what comes.

As you grow up, you’ve learned from the past and become conscious of the consequences of your actions. You think about your future, feel responsibility and are able to postpone actual benefits in exchange for (more or increased) future benefits.

When we grow old, the past will influence and determine our actions more and more until our last phase in life, where future and present transform in a kind of transcendental state. In this stage your present and decisions are from another order. Physically you’re here on good old earth, but in a spiritual way you’ve already risen to your new destiny…..

Zen-Present
However, back to the present., Zimbardo continues that living in the present can also be in a Zen-like perspective, illustrated by the next sanskrit verse:

Yesterday is already a dream and tomorrow but a vision
But today ‘well lived’ makes every yesterday a dream of happiness and every tomorrow a vision of hope

So it’s you who can create a heaven on earth.

Use Zimbardo’s time-perspective to be(come) like you wanna be.

Although there’s a list of traditional Decision Making Techniques, the decision you take depends heavily on the moment of decision.

Almost any personal decision process consists of several phases

• The Good Idea Phase
  Often it ‘starts with’ a good idea or an opportunity or possible decision (for solving a problem) that ‘looks like’ a ‘good idea‘.
  Deciding in this stage could be qualified as : Impulsive.
  For small decisions this ‘way of deciding’ could work out fine. If the decision is successful, you enjoy it. It has the opportunity of incidentally creating a great unexpected success. If it turns out wrong, you just throw the idea away and you’re not disappointed.

• The However Phase
  In this phase you quickly focus on the possible disadvantages of this ‘good idea’.
  By deciding in this stage you reduce the amount of downside risk of your decision from your own perspective.
  Deciding in this face is more balanced and suits decisions with medium sized (personal) risks.
• The On the other Hand Phase
  In this phase you focus on the advantages of the ‘good idea’.
  Taking a decision in this phase, leads to rational decisions with respect to your own environment.
• The But my Heart says Phase
  Now you take your ‘gutfeeling‘ into the decision process.
  What your heart says, is taken into account.
  Deciding in this phase leads to emotional balanced decisions. Watch out for ‘too much emotional arguments in your final decision’.
• The What Others say Phase
  In this stage you include ‘what other people think or would decide’ in your decision.
  An advice of a good friend that knows you well could perhaps make you conscious of your pitfalls or blind spots.
  Watch out for ‘getting dependent’ in this stage. It’s mostly wise to listen to our ‘true friends‘, keep making your own decisions.
• The I must take a Decision Phase
  Often we don’t have to decide, but we feel we do.
  We get desperate. Weighting all facts of the idea or problem still on leads to a fifty-fifty situation.
  Deciding in this phase (deciding ‘something’), concerning ideas with big consequences, often leads to dividement, separation and chaos.
  Go back to what you would have had decided in the rational phase or become enlightened and decide nothing until destiny decides for you.
• The Zen Phase
  When we are conscious of everything, we’ll take no decisions at all. We know and accept that ‘taking decisions’ is the same as sailing a boat in a tropical storm: It helps, it’s certainly important, but the sea is in charge and ‘decides’. So be sure to choose the right sea!

Sometimes there are other ways on how to decide, like:
The Best Decisions a Person Can Make

• Decide to decide
• Decide to build character
• Decide to pursue the best option
• Decide to forgive
• Decide to always get better

Anyhow, be conscious about the timing of decisions !
]]> http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/04/16/when-to-decide/feed/ 0 philos http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/04/16/adversity-helps/ http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/04/16/adversity-helps/#comments Thu, 16 Apr 2009 19:55:00 +0000 philos http://philos.wordpress.com/2009/04/16/adversity-helps Continue reading →]]> Ever thought about:

• It seems your life is only dependent on your circumstances?
• Does life happen to you?
• Do you live life or does life lives you?

Let’s look at the life of a sailor that has to sail his boat to the port.
No matter what direction of the wind, a professional sailor is able to direct his boat to his destination, the port.

Even with adverse wind he manages to do so by a technique called

Tacking = zigzagging upwind

The only problem with sailing is when

There is no wind at all !
It’s just like in our lives. When we don’t encounter resistance, disagreement or disappointment, we will not be able to grow in life and we will not reach our destination.

A healthy, right sized, quantity of resistances in our life, help us to see the obstacles in our lives that prohibit us from development or growth.

So let’s hope our circumstances in life keep moving.

So let’s hope our circumstances in life keep moving.
Moving stairs at the fair This helps us to make our necessary steps in life.

It’s just like climbing the “moving stairs” at the fair.

The circumstances (stairs) go up and down, and you have to make progress by making steps !

Now in a close relation, keep in mind to let the wind blow between the two of you, simply to make it possible for the both of you to zigzag to your common port.

Let’s conclude with some wise “overcoming adversity” quotes …..

So overcoming adversity is a life challenge and adversity helps !

Take a look at the next picture:

It’s clear that the little fish here, have a problem.

What’s also clear, is that random actions of an individual fish are not likely going to change the situation.

In the next picture, by coordinating behavior, a way has been found to solve ‘the problem’ :

This solution looks very simple, the question is how to organize this kind of collective “big fish” behavior?

The problem is that often first movers don’t benefit from a collective approach in the first stage:

First movers take a risk by sticking out their neck. The are not sure that their fellows will follow. They also take the risk that their actions turns against themselves.

It turns out that one way to get individuals to coordinate their behavior is through morality.

Morality
Our natural sympathy for other people, our fear of shame and even our feelings of guilt, are often enough to stimulate us to participate in a successful collective action.

Albeit it’s discussable what the origins of morality are, it’s clear that morality can help us to overcome that ‘first mover period’. Groups that use concepts like fairness, reciprocity, trust, guilt, and shame, often do better than rival groups.

Interested?
In an excellent essay called A Business Plan for Catalyzing Collective Action , The Point explanes how how these cooperative mechanisms can be created.

Examples
Collective rational or even emotional behavior often plays a decisive role in our society, as may be clear from the 2009 credit crisis turmoil and the escalating bonus madness.

Be aware of individual and collective behavior.

Study “collective behavior mechanisms” and certainly don’t forget to integrate the key principles of this collective behavior into your personal Life Plan.
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